The US media ranks the US ahead in the Vancouver Winter Olympics based on most medals won. The non-American consensus rates competitors according to their gold, Germany often leading. If your average win is silver, it does seem queer to declare yourself in first place. Not to mention that total wins appear irrevocably linked to the size of the teams fielded. Inspired by 538 giving 2010 odds based on statistical analysis, I thought about other likely predictors. Number of athletes and population size are both outweighed by Per Capita Income as the deciding factor for final rankings.
| Gold Medals |
Total Medals |
Country |
Team Size | Population | GDP per capita | Prob. Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 32 | USA | 215 | 309m | $ 46k | 1 |
| 9 | 27 | Germany | 153 | 82m | 39k | 3 |
| 8 | 20 | Norway | 99 | 5m | 77k | 4 |
| 8 | 17 | Canada | 206 | 34m | 39k | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | South Korea | 46 | 50m | 16k | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | Switzerland | 146 | 8m | 66k | 5 |
| 4 | 13 | Austria | 81 | 8m | 45k | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | China | 90 | 1,336m | 3k | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | Sweden | 106 | 9m | 43k | 6 |
| 3 | 14 | Russia | 177 | 142m | 9k | 8 |
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