Some polls says the race is neck and neck, others show an Obama lead. Baseball experts FiveThirtyEight.com, who poll the pollsters, adjusting like they do for sports as if their prediction has got to matter, (and who, by the way, predicted the Rays would make the Series), give Obama a breakaway victory. The factors which I’ve been polling indicate something completely different.

You’ve noticed them too I’m sure.

1. Who’s showing the respect?
How many politicians and newscasters begin every mention of John McCain with how much they respect the veteran Senator? My unofficial poll says: 100% OF THEM. I’m sure that even if reports came out about McCain squelching POW/MIA efforts, they would begin with reverential references to his reputation. Why is everyone on TV so concerned to say how much they love, respect, admire, etc, John McCain, even as they offer criticism of what he’s saying? Most of McCain’s personal history is really damning. All of his political maneuvers are opportunistic and wrong-headed. Yet everyone always makes sure to show their deference.

Would that be your inclination, if you had to talk about the little creep? McCain stands for nothing but false accusations against Obama, praise for Sarah Palin’s qualifications, and he speaks in sound bites which only add to his incoherence. The mini-hothead accomplished squat in Congress except to support Bush, protect Keating, and sandbag against Vietnam vets. Still everyone is careful to sing his praises?

If you want to argue that it’s just being polite. Consider that the chorus is offering no such formality to Barack Obama. You don’t hear them saying what a fine fellow Obama is before they tell you how they disagree with what latest action he’s taken.

So that’s a prediction, with a consensus of 100% of the Beltway, with a margin or error of nobody, that “gotta love him.” You wanna bet they know John McCain is going to come out of this race in a more influential position than he is now?

2. Who’s fixed the election?
And let’s poll the swing states with GOP-affiliated state-employed election officials who have prepared the voter rolls with a mind to suppress the Obama vote. Also 100%. What does this mean?

Barack Obama may be anticipated to have more votes than John McCain. But investigations into election tampering already perpetrated by Republican election officials show the number of disenfranchised Democratic voters is bigger than Obama’s hopeful margin. So where does that leave the election? And why would those working to rig the election take the risk, if they anticipate an Obama landslide?

Most of the voter registration purges have already happened, and from early voting experiences we’re reliving the suspicious equipment malfunctions of 2004.

No. The polls that matter are already braced for McCain.

3. Who has your friends’ vote?
Now try an informal poll of how the people around you are going to vote. Your personal poll results may vary, but I’d be interested to know if they vary by much.

A positive predominance of our neighbors are for McCain. Ditto, our extended families. I can’t explain it, honestly. We’re talking people with wealth, with education, with some sense. For McCain. It’s unscientific, it’s wide open, it’s a terribly embarrassing phenomenon, but is it so unlikely? The American people have a reputation which precedes them. Why imagine that you and I don’t know a representative sample of them?

How are the numbers looking from your vantage point? America is going to get the candidate they deserve.